|
|
|
The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation November, 2008 Editorial
Staff
|
|
|
The Journal of South Asian
Non-Proliferation is an online compendium of non-proliferation related publications.
It is a periodic compilation of news, official statements, and expert analyses
related to South Asian non-proliferation issues.
|
|
|
Supporting worldwide understanding of South Asian non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament issues. The Journal of South Asian
Non-Proliferation CONTENTS
NUCLEAR RELATED ISSUES á Analysis: A Safer World á Japan not keen on nuclear cooperation with
India á Indo-US nuclear deal: Bush issues first
Phase of Certifications á The job of keeping sensitive materials away
from pariahs was always hard—and now itÕs marred by squabbles á Rate of Nuclear Thefts ÔDisturbingly High,Õ
Monitoring Chief Says á Australia, Japan host nuclear non-proliferation
talks á Widespread fallout from India-US pact á Nuclear disarmament push a 'difficult job'
for Rudd á Nuclear DŽjˆ Vu At Carnegie á U.S. security chief says cross-border raids
necessary á Russia rejects U.S. charges that nukes are
missing MISSILE RELATED ISSUES
á Israel And U.S. Don't Have Deployed Missile
Defense Capability to Guarantee 100 Percent Shoot Down of a Long Range
Ballistic Missile From Iran á
US missile
chief concerned by delays to Polish base accord á As a citizen scientist, Mian informs South
Asian nuclear debate á World Destroys 41 Percent of Chemical
Warfare Agents á South Korea Completes Destruction of Its
Chemical Weapons Stockpile CLIMATE / ENERGY á Trouble Awaits Nuclear Investors á Chinese premier meets with Iranian vice president á Warmer Antarctica Shows Climate Changing on
Every Continent á The Unintended Consequences of Climate
Change Solutions á China's Silk Road to Energy Security á Water table dips in Punjab, Haryana SUMMARIES
Analysis: A safer world —Talat Masood 30 October
2008 - Nuclear weapons do not deter Al Qaeda or the Taliban. Nuclear weapons
did not prevent the collapse of the Soviet Union. We too, frankly, have not
felt very secure since overt nuclearisation in 1998, despite claims to the
contrary Last year, the Wall Street Journal published a groundbreaking
article authored by George Schultz, Henry Kissinger, William Perry and Sam
Nunn, in which they enunciated their joint vision of a world free of nuclear
weapons. This took everyone by surprise, and reminded us all of the dangers
of living in a nuclear world. Japan not keen on nuclear cooperation with India: 23 October 2008 - TOKYO:
Despite finally supporting the United States-India civil nuclear initiative
at the International Atomic Energy Agency and Nuclear Suppliers Group, Japan
is less interested in exporting nuclear material to India than in ensuring
New Delhi sticks to its non-proliferation pledges. Asked whether his
government would now be prepared to encourage Japanese firms to export
reactor components to India, JapanÕs Prime Minister, Taro Aso, baldly told a
joint press conference with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday that
Òwe are not engaged in discussions regarding nuclear energy with India.Ó Indo-US Nuclear Deal: Bush Issues First Phase of Certifications - WASHINGTON, D.C. Fri Oct 31,
2008 - US President George W. Bush has formally certified to the Congress
that the 123 agreement with India is consistent with the Nuclear Non-proliferation
Treaty. Bush also made a commitment that his administration will work with
Nuclear Suppliers Group (N.S.G.) members to restrict enrichment/reprocessing
technologies. There are two phases of certification and the first phase
contains the two commitments to be done by the President before exchange of
the diplomatic note and entry into force of the Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement. The job of keeping sensitive materials away from pariahs was
always hard—and now itÕs marred by squabbles - NOBODY feels much natural love for a shadowy group of
self-appointed policemen, engaged in a tough job which some outsiders resent.
Yet there is one such band of brothers that does noble work. For more than 30
years, the effort to halt the spread of nuclear weapons has relied, at a
practical level, on a small, publicity-shy bunch of officials from a club
called the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Behind closed doors, this 45-nation
fraternity stitches up rules whose aim is to control trade in nuclear
materials, equipment and technology. They donÕt always succeed. North Korea,
Iran, (a subsequently reformed) Libya and others tapped into a nuclear black
market that was run for years from Pakistan. But now the fraternity itself is
under strain, with perilous consequences for world peace. Rate of Nuclear Thefts ÔDisturbingly High,Õ Monitoring Chief
Says UNITED NATIONS —October
27, 2008: Mohamed El Baradei, the chief of the International Atomic Energy
Agency, said in a speech on Monday that the number of reports of nuclear or
radioactive material stolen around the world last year was Òdisturbingly
high.Ó Dr. El Baradei, in his annual report to the General Assembly, said
nearly 250 such thefts were reported in the year ending in June. ÒThe
possibility of terrorists obtaining nuclear or other radioactive material
remains a grave threat,Ó he said. ÒEqually troubling is the fact that much of
this material is not subsequently recovered.Ó Members of Dr. El BaradeiÕs
staff and outside experts cautioned that the amount of missing material
remained relatively small. If all the stolen material were lumped together,
it would not be enough to build even one nuclear device, they said. Australia, Japan host nuclear non-proliferation talks - SYDNEY, Australia - Oct 21,
2008 — The world has not paid enough attention to the spread of nuclear
weapons since the Cold War and could face devastation dwarfing the 9/11
attacks if the threat is not quickly curbed, the co-chair of a nuclear
commission said Tuesday. Former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans said
that while nuclear proliferation took a back seat to climate change and
financial crises, countries such as India and Pakistan tested nuclear
missiles, leaving the world vulnerable to an "avalanche" of new
weapons. "The last decade or so, the international community has been
sleepwalking when it comes to this potentially catastrophic problem,"
Evans said during a break from the first meeting of the International
Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament. Widespread fallout from India-US
pact The United States-India civilian nuclear agreement
was signed into law this month after two years of negotiations and bitter
debate, yet the deal's final terms have sharply divided arms control and
non-proliferation specialists. The focus of this often-emotional debate
revolves around a simple question: is the deal a meaningful compromise that
protects India's national security interests and the integrity of the nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), or does it give Delhi too much power and
undermine the NPT? The debate continues with no consensus in sight.
Unfortunately the deal's potentially far greater consequences are garnering
far less attention. In particular, little has been said about how this deal
is seen in other countries, the precedent it appears to set, and the impact
it has on US leadership generally. Nuclear disarmament push a 'difficult job' for Rudd - Fri Oct 17, 2008 -
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will have difficulty leading the nuclear
disarmament debate because of the nation's expanding uranium industry, the
Greens said. Mr. Rudd's foreign policy initiative - the International
Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament - will hold its first
meeting in Sydney next week. Mr. Rudd last month said the commission has a
two-year mandate to reinvigorate the global debate on preventing the spread
of nuclear weapons and for nuclear disarmament. It would seek to shape a
consensus in the lead-up to a 2010 conference reviewing the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Nuclear DŽjˆ Vu At Carnegie October 30 2008 - Only one week before Barack
Obama is expected to win the presidential election, Defense Secretary Robert
Gates made one last pitch for the Bush administrationÕs nuclear policy during
a speech Tuesday at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. What is
the opposite of visionary?
Whatever, thatÕs the word that best describes Mr. GatesÕs speech. Had
it been delivered in the mid-1990s it would not have sounded out of place.
The theme was that the world is the way the world is and, not only is there
little to be done about changing the world, our response pretty much has to
be more of the same. U.S.
security chief says cross-border raids necessary - LONDON
(Reuters) -Fri Oct 31, 2008 - A country should have the right to attack
another if it is harbouring a potential terrorist threat, the U.S. homeland
security chief said in remarks appearing to justify recent U.S. raids in
Pakistan and Syria. Laying out what amounts to a broadened definition of
self-defence, Michael Chertoff said international law should accommodate a
country's need to deter a possible threat abroad even if it meant taking
pre-emptive action. Russia rejects U.S. charges that
nukes are missing MOSCOW - October 31, 2008 - Russia's Foreign
Ministry is rejecting U.S. allegations that some Russian nuclear weapons are
unaccounted for. The ministry says in a Friday statement that allegations
made by U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates are no more than
"insinuations." It insists that no nuclear weapons have disappeared
from Russian arsenals. The ministry says all nuclear weapons in Russia have
been under reliable protection since the 1991 Soviet collapse despite the
nation's economic turmoil. Gates spoke earlier this week at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Washington. He expressed worries about
what he called the "tens of thousands of old nuclear mines, nuclear
artillery shells and so on," left over from the old Soviet arsenal.
Israel
And U.S. Don't Have Deployed Missile Defense Capability to Guarantee 100
Percent Shoot Down of a Long Range Ballistic Missile From Iran - TEL AVIV, Israel, Oct 30, 2008
/PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Riki Ellison, Chairman of the Missile
Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA) http://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org,
was in Israel this week to visit and get updates on their missile defense
system. His thoughts in journal form are as follows: "Over the past few
days, MDAA has made an inaugural and historic visit to the country of Israel.
Understanding the ballistic missile and rocket threat to this country and its
people by their people provides a realism that is much different from our
perceptions. "Understanding the political and public will to develop and
deploy national missile defense to protect their lives and nation enlightens
the reality of a nation under threat." "Understanding the 4 major
Israeli missile defense systems (Arrow 2, David's Sling, Iron Dome, Arrow 3)
through in-depth briefings from the chief engineers and program managers
validates the efficiency of doing more with less from the Israeli self grown
systems with their U.S. partnerships and support." US missile chief concerned by delays to Polish
base accord - WARSAW
(AFP) 30 October 2008 - —
A top US defence official Thursday said he was worried that delays in
Poland's ratification could upset a tight timetable for deploying American
missiles here to ward off attacks from so-called rogue states. "I'm very
concerned. That's probably the biggest concern I have at this point," US
Missile Defence Agency head General Henry Obering said during a stock-taking
visit to Poland, which has faced anger from its former overlord Russia for
agreeing to host the silos. Polish lawmakers have yet to ratify a deal struck
in August between Warsaw and Washington after more than a year of painstaking
talks, which foresees the creation of a US base in northern Poland for 10
interceptor missiles. Polish President Lech Kaczynski, who under the
country's constitution must sign the ratification, Thursday urged parliament
to approve it "as soon as possible."
As a citizen scientist, Mian informs South
Asian nuclear debate October 30, 2008 Zia Mian has embraced the role of citizen
scientist since he began pondering nuclear disarmament issues more than two
decades ago. A research scientist with the Program on Science and Global
Security in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs,
Mian uses his training as a physicist to inform international policymakers, government
officials and the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons. "It's the combination of being a
serious scientist and taking seriously your responsibility to be active in
your community," Mian, who also is a lecturer in the Wilson School, said
of his approach. "It's the role of scholars to help people understand an
issue as fundamental as what it means for a country to have nuclear weapons
and the capacity for mass destruction that these weapons represent." In addition to conducting research and teaching
at Princeton and engaging with policymakers, Mian writes and offers
commentary on nuclear issues in the international press and has produced
documentaries to help illuminate the subject. Professor of Public and
International Affairs Frank von Hippel, former director of the Program on
Science and Global Security, said Mian exemplifies the University's informal
motto of "Princeton in the nation's service and in the service of all
nations." "Dr. Mian is what I call an 'activist
analyst.' He is interested in research not for its own sake but as a means to
help make the world a better place," said von Hippel, who is still
involved with the program's research. Mian also directs the program's Project on
Peace and Security in South Asia. His research focus on his native country of
Pakistan, its nuclear weapons program and arms race with India, has garnered
increasing attention. "These are two countries armed with
nuclear weapons, with very large armies and a history of fighting wars with
each other," he said. The potential dangers of Pakistan and
India's nuclear programs, including the fear of terrorists obtaining nuclear
materials, underscore concerns about problems in the region and their effect
on international security. Pakistan's role as an ally in the U.S. war on
terrorism has made it especially important. "After Sept. 11, many issues combined
to bring South Asia into the center of world debate in ways it hasn't been in
the past, including the U.S. war against al-Qaida and the Taliban, Pakistan's
role in nuclear proliferation and the rise of Islamic militancy there, as
well as growing U.S. economic and strategic interests in India," Mian
said. South Asia project Mian came to Princeton in 1997 as a
visiting researcher with what was then the Program on Nuclear Policy
Alternatives of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies. The program
was established in 1975 to provide the technical basis for policy initiatives
in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. In 2001, it became part of the
Wilson School as the Program on Science and Global Security. "The researchers here start from the
presumption that you want to reduce the risks of nuclear war and the effects
of producing nuclear weapons -- that the world would be a better place if
nobody had nuclear weapons," Mian said. "We try to promote ideas
that will take the process in that direction." Mian was recruited to join the program, in
part, to work for the Project on Peace and Security in South Asia --
established a year before India and Pakistan carried out nuclear tests in
1998. Among other issues, project researchers have analyzed the effects of a
limited nuclear war in the region, the consequences of a nuclear weapons
accident and ways to limit the India-Pakistan arms race. Some of the project's most significant
research is conducted through a unique program in which physicists from
Pakistan and India spend the summer at Princeton exploring nuclear policy
questions with Mian and other researchers. During recent summers, the
researchers analyzed Pakistan and India's nuclear weapons capabilities, as
neither country has disclosed details about its weapons stock. "This is where the physics comes in.
You look at the facilities each country has for making nuclear materials and
then try to estimate how many weapons it could make," Mian said.
"Some of the information is public, but having the technical expertise
helps you know what to look for." The researchers aimed to raise questions
about the Bush administration proposal to lift 30-year-old nuclear trade
restrictions on India, which fueled concerns that India could use nuclear
material and technologies provided for peaceful purposes to advance its
weapons programs, as it did in the 1970s. The team's analysis concluded, in part,
that India could significantly increase its capacity for producing
weapons-grade plutonium in the coming years and warned that Pakistan might
follow suit. The results have been cited by disarmament and non-proliferation
advocates, members of Congress and international leaders. A U.S.-India
nuclear cooperation agreement was passed by Congress in October. M.V. Ramana, an Indian physicist who
formerly co-directed the South Asia project with Mian and remains involved
with the summer program, said Mian is adept at identifying technical
solutions that also have political benefits. "His concern about nuclear weapons
always comes first," said Ramana, who is a fellow with the Centre for
Interdisciplinary Studies in Environment and Development in Bangalore, India.
"The scientific methods he employs are simply tools to chip away at the
basic issues." The South Asia project follows the 30 years
of research by von Hippel, a theoretical physicist, and Harold Feiveson, a
senior research policy analyst in the Wilson School and Program on Science
and Global Security. The two men have worked with Soviet scientists, and now
Russian and Chinese scientists, to promote disarmament. "We are using the model that has been
practiced at Princeton for many years by people like Frank and Hal, who use their
abilities as scholars and scientists to create a new space to practice
cooperation," Mian said. Through the Program on Science and Global
Security, Mian also was involved in establishing the International Panel on
Fissile Materials. Founded in 2006, the group of independent nuclear experts
from 16 countries aims to advance solutions for securing and reducing stocks
of highly enriched uranium and separated plutonium -- the key materials for
making nuclear weapons. "We have 500 tons of plutonium in the
world, and perhaps three times as much highly enriched uranium," Mian
said. "That is enough for more than 100,000 nuclear weapons." The panel recently drafted a treaty to ban
the production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium for weapons, and
developed ideas for how such a ban might be verified. Mian, von Hippel and
Princeton research scholar Alexander Glaser presented the treaty draft to the
United Nations in October. Mian said his colleagues on the panel hope the
draft will provide the U.N. Conference on Disarmament a template to move
forward with its own treaty, for which the process has stalled.
World Destroys 41 Percent of Chemical Warfare Agents - Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008 - The Organization for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has announced that more than 41 percent of
all chemical warfare material declared under an international treaty has been
eliminated, Interfax reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29). The figure
accounts for 28,600 metric tons removed from declared chemical warfare
stockpiles in India, Russia, the United States and other countries, said
Krzysztof Paturej, head of the OPCW special projects office. South Korea Completes Destruction of Its Chemical Weapons
Stockpile - THE HAGUE, Netherlands, October
17, 2008 (ENS) - In a step towards the global elimination of chemical
weapons, South Korea has become the second country to destroy its declared
chemical weapons stockpile. The country beat its December 31, 2008 deadline
by at least three months. The accomplishment, which took place since June,
has not been announced publicly because South Korea has requested full confidentiality
under the Chemical Weapons Convention, an international treaty that requires
the destruction of all chemical weapons stockpiles worldwide. South Korea is
referred to officially as "the other state party," or "a state
party" at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the
implementing and inspection agency for the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Trouble Awaits Nuclear Investors: 29 October 2008 - The recently signed U.S.-India nuclear deal
has stirred great excitement in Indian business and industrial and business
circles. With only 145,000 megawatts of installed capacity, the power sector
has been struggling to meet demand. India is also short of oil (importing 70%
of its needs). While it does have large reserves of coal, these are of low
quality and hard to exploit in an environmentally conscious age. In this
context, the opening of the nuclear power sector to international trade is
seen to promise an investment bonanza. Stumbling blocks. However, investors
confront a number of problems which may moderate current enthusiasm: Chinese premier meets with Iranian vice president: ASTANA, Oct. 30 (Xinhua) --
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said here Thursday that China will maintain
contact with Iran and conduct mutually beneficial cooperation with the
country. The Chinese premier made the remark at a meeting with Parviz
Davoodi, first vice president of Iran, on the sidelines of the 7thprime
ministers' meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Astana,
the capital of Kazakhstan. Iran is an observer of the SCO. Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao said here Thursday that China will maintain contact with Iran and
conduct mutually beneficial cooperation with the country. Wen spoke highly of
the traditional friendship between the peoples of China and Iran. The premier
said the Chinese side is willing to expand cooperation with Iran in
compliance with the UN charter and on the basis of the five principles of
peaceful coexistence, which will not only bring benefits for the two peoples
but also be conducive to regional peace and stability. Warmer Antarctica Shows Climate
Changing on Every Continent: It's official: The South Pole
is also succumbing to human-induced climate change October 31, 2008 - GLOBAL
WARMING: The Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula--an area of ice
larger than Rhode Island--collapsed as a result of climate change and now
such global warming has been detected across Antarctica. Humanity's impact on
climate has been detected on every continent except Antarctica, or so said
the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
February 2007. No longer: scientists, comparing decades of records from 17
Antarctic weather stations with computer simulations of Earth's climate,
found that human-induced global warming has been heating up the continent
that is home to the South Pole, as well. "We have detected the human
fingerprint in both the Arctic and Antarctic region[s]," says Peter
Stott, a climate modeler at the U.K. Met (meteorological) Office's Hadley
Center, and co-author of the study published in the journal Nature
Geoscience. The Unintended Consequences of
Climate Change Solutions - October 31, 2008, Earlier this month we noted that scientists
had begun calling for cool heads in the pursuit of alternative energies and
climate change measures — so as to avoid unintended consequences.
Following that trend, a preliminary study released Thursday (PDF) by a consortium led by the Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency looked at the potential ramifications a Dutch plan to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions — dubbed ÒClean and Efficient.Ó The study
found that saving energy and increasing the use of wind energy could lead to
a reduction in the emission of air-polluting compounds as well as greenhouse
gases. China's Silk Road to Energy Security - October 31, 2008: You won't see them seated with world leaders
nor attending black-tie political functions, but modern-day explorers can be
just as near and dear to a nation's interests as those from the Age of
Exploration. The growth of emerging economies has made each nation's ability
to secure meaningful oil resources all the more salient. The discovery of the
massive Tupi oil field last year by Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) will prove a critical moment in Brazil's growth story. Through
a steady stream of new discoveries and overseas acquisitions, China's CNOOC
(NYSE: CEO) seeks to secure a new silk road to China's continued growth.
CNOOC managed to increase oil production in the third quarter by an impressive
15.2% over the corresponding 2007 quarter, reaching nearly 550,000 BOE of daily production. Two new projects came online during the
period, while the company identified four new oil and gas fields off shore of
China. Realizing oil prices that were 59% higher at $106.94 per barrel, CNOOC
grew revenue by 69%. Water table dips in Punjab, Haryana - Oct 30, 2008 - Punjab and Haryana have to pay a heavy price for being the grain
bowl of country and for feeding the nation as the groundwater table in the
two states has come down to alarming levels. Punjab has only 1.5 % of
country's land but its output of rice and wheat accounts for 50 % of the
grain, the government purchases to feed more than 400 million people across
the country. Same for Haryana, which holds second position in terms of
contribution to buffer stock. The two states were particularly responsible
for the success of green revolution and now are on verge of facing serious
ecological threats as their water tables have reached 1600 feet deeper and
groundwater levels dropping by 25-30 meters each year as increasing
installation of tubewells and water pumps are not being discouraged there,
says the Asssocham findings released on Wednesday.
|
|||||||||
|
|