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The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation

July, 2008


Editorial Staff
Maria Sultan, Editor-in-Chief
Bharath G, Research Analyst
 Nick Robson & Aisha Naveed Research & Production

 

 

 

The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation is an online compendium of non-proliferation related publications.
It is a periodic compilation of news, official statements, and expert analyses related to South Asian non-proliferation issues.

 


 


 

Supporting worldwide understanding of South Asian non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament issues.

 


The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation
is a Product of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

 


CONTENTS 

NUCLEAR RELATED ISSUES
Iran Gets a Nuclear Vote of Confidence

U.S Envoy Upbeat on N. Korea Talks

Syria wants N-energy under Arab umbrella

Syria to Let In IAEA Inspectors

Kudrin Wants Fewer Strategic Sectors

EU urges Iran to provide nuclear information

R E G I O N: Khamenei denies Iran seeking nuclear bomb

US nuclear deterrent likely to grow: Gates

Plutonium Reactor Is Closed

Parsing the Schumer Plan

US, EU warn Iran of more sanctions

Bush, allies embrace possible Iran sanctions

Inclusion of Pakistan, India, Israel and N Korea needed for N-disarmament

European Leaders Back Bush on Iran

Bush Says Iran Spurns New Offer on Uranium

US concerned over N-design distribution report

Iran insists enrichment to continue

Iran weighing nuclear offer

World can deal with Iran if it redefines itself

In Defense Policy, France Turns to U.S. and Europe

Brown Says Europe Will Tighten Iran Sanctions

Demand to halt enrichment illegitimate, says Iran

Crucial meeting on India-US nuclear deal postponed

Pakistan committed to non-proliferation

 

MISSILE RELATED ISSUES  

N Korea fires short-range missile

 

PROLIFERATION & SECURITY

A.Q. Khan denies selling N-weapon blueprints

Dr Khan says European businesses provided N-technology to Iran, Libya

US warns Pakistan over release of Dr Khan

 

OPINION / EDITORIAL

Threatening Iran

How safe are our nukes 1?

How safe are our nukes 2?

India doctrine & regional crises

A Q Khan -- the other side

U-turns on Iran

 


SUMMARIES

 

NUCLEAR RELATED ISSUES

 

N Korea almost ready on nuclear statement:   Seoul—North Korea is almost ready to deliver a full accounting of its nuclear activities under a major disarmament deal but wants to link the timing to US concessions, Seoul’s top negotiator said Sunday. Kim Sook, who spoke with his North Korean counterpart in Beijing last week, said Pyongyang was waiting for the green light that Washington would take the communist nation off a list of states that sponsor terrorism. “North Korea was preparing to submit a nuclear declaration, and I could confirm it was almost completed,” Kim Sook told reporters of his first formal talks with Pyongyang’s top nuclear envoy Kim Kye-Gwan two days ago. The North was supposed to have handed over a full declaration of all its nuclear activities by December 31 last year under a deal with its negotiating partners China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. But disputes over the declaration have blocked the start of the final phase of the disarmament process—the permanent dismantling of its nuclear plants and surrender of all atomic material.

 


Iran Gets a Nuclear Vote of Confidence:02 June 2008PARIS — Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reaffirmed that he does not believe Iran is seeking nuclear arms, a French newspaper said Saturday. "Nothing indicates" that Tehran is trying to use its nuclear program to develop weapons, he told Le Monde. Russia has been a key ally to Iran in its nuclear standoff with the West, including building the country's nuclear reactor at Bushehr, but has also voted in favor of three rounds of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran for its failure to halt uranium enrichment. Putin said his country did not want Iran to acquire nuclear arms and that he has counseled Iran to "prove" to the international community that it does not have hidden weapons plans. But Putin said that "for the moment" Iran has broken no laws — while stressing that Russia is against Tehran's obtaining nuclear arms, Le Monde said. "We will, by all means, stop proliferation."

 


U.S. Envoy Upbeat on N. Korea Talks:02 June 2008The top U.S. envoy to talks with North Korea said Friday in Moscow that he was optimistic that negotiations on the Communist nation's nuclear disarmament would be successful but refused to say when it could be achieved. "It's a very difficult and ... a slow-moving process, but we feel very positive," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said during talks with Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin. "We hope that we can work together in the future as we get on to what we hope will be the final phase," he said. Hill praised close cooperation with Moscow on the issue. Russia is part of the six-nation talks on the North Korean nuclear program which began in 2003.The nuclear talks have been fraught with repeated setbacks and delays. North Korea has stopped making plutonium and began disabling its nuclear facilities so they cannot be quickly restarted but still has a stockpile of radioactive material.

 


Syria wants N-energy under Arab umbrella:  DUBAI, June 3: Syria is not seeking nuclear weapons but wants to have access to atomic energy for peaceful purposes through a collective Arab project, President Bashar al-Assad said in remarks published on Tuesday.  The Dubai-based Gulf News also quoted Assad as saying that the United States should have sought an investigation of a Syrian facility suspected of housing a secret nuclear plant before it was destroyed in an Israeli air raid last September. “Acquiring nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is an international trend that all countries are rightfully pursuing. In Syria, we want this to be done within an Arab context, which was discussed and agreed during the Arab Summit in Riyadh,” he said during a visit to the United Arab Emirates. Gulf Arabs have announced their own plans to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes following a 2007 Arab summit that called on Arabs to develop atomic power. US intelligence officials in April said they believed Syria had built the suspected reactor with the assistance of North Korea, which later also helped in cleaning up the site after the Israeli strike.

 

 


Syria to Let In IAEA Inspectors:03 June 2008VIENNA — Syria has invited UN inspectors to visit in a probe of allegations that a remote building destroyed by Israeli combat jets was a nuclear reactor built secretly with North Korean help, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday. Announcing the planned June 22-24 visit, IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei also criticized Iran for stonewalling his investigations into allegations that the country worked on a secret nuclear weapons program. His comments to the agency’s 35-nation board reflected the focus of a board meeting that opened Monday — Iran’s nuclear defiance and suspicions that Syria tried to build a plutonium-producing reactor and cover up after the building was flattened in September by Israel. Neither the United States nor Israel told the International Atomic Energy Agency about the Syrian site until late April, about a year after they obtained what they considered to be decisive intelligence: dozens of photographs from a handheld camera that showed the compound in Syria’s eastern desert

 


Kudrin Wants Fewer Strategic Sectors:03 June 2008By Anna Smolchenko / Staff Writer Prime Minister Vladimir Putin praised a new law restricting foreign investment in strategic sectors at a government meeting on Monday, but a senior Cabinet member said the legislation was too strict and might ultimately be relaxed. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin described the law after the meeting as the result of a “political consensus,” but said he had hoped the list of sectors designated as strategic would contain fewer industries.  The new law covers investment in 42 sectors, including space, aviation, nuclear energy, telecoms, media and natural monopolies. Private foreign companies looking to purchase a 50 percent stake or greater in a company in one of the sectors would be required to receive government approval first. State-owned foreign companies are required to receive permission for any stake 25 percent or greater.


 

EU urges Iran to provide nuclear information:  VIENNA, June 4: European countries urged Iran on Wednesday to furnish all outstanding information on its disputed nuclear program to the UN atomic watchdog to end a long-running impasse. “We call on Iran to supply all the necessary information, as well as the access to people, documents and sites requested by the IAEA,” or International Atomic Energy Agency, French ambassador Francois-Xavier Deniau told the agency’s 35-member board at its meeting here. He was speaking on behalf of the so-called EU-3 comprising Britain, France and Germany. “That is the only way for the agency to determine the true nature of the Iranian nuclear program,” he said in a speech. The Slovenian representative to the IAEA, Bojan Bertoncelj, whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency, echoed the French envoy. The EU “remains seriously concerned that despite more than five years of intense efforts by the IAEA, the agency is still not in a position to determine the full nature of Iran’s nuclear program,” Bertoncelj said in a speech.

 

R E G I O N: Khamenei denies Iran seeking nuclear bomb : TEHRAN: Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday vehemently rejected charges Tehran was seeking a nuclear weapon, amid mounting concern from the UN atomic agency about the Iranian atomic drive. “The Iranian nation is not seeking a nuclear weapon,” Khamenei said in a speech broadcast live on state television to mark the anniversary of the death in 1989 of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. “We are seeking nuclear energy for peaceful purposes for daily use and we will continue this path to the envy of our enemies. We will mightily achieve this aim,” he added. Khamenei’s comments come a day after UN atomic watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei urged “full disclosure” over allegations that Tehran hid key information about weaponization in its contested nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has in the past months been investigating intelligence given by Western countries that Iran has studied how to make an atomic weapon, much to Tehran’s fury.

 


US nuclear deterrent likely to grow: Gates: LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE: United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Monday that the importance of the US nuclear arsenal was likely to grow in importance in coming years as Russia moves to strengthen its nuclear forces. Gates made the comment in a closed-door question-and-answer session with rank-and-file airmen in explaining his decision to replace the air force leadership over two major nuclear blunders. In a speech earlier, Gates told airmen he regretted having to remove General T Michael Moseley as chief of staff and Michael Wynne as air force secretary. “But there is no room for error in this mission. Nor is there, unfortunately, any room for second chances - especially when serious questions about the safety and security of our nuclear arsenal have been raised in the minds of the American people and international partners,” he said, adding, “When systemic problems are found, I believe that accountability must reached beyond NCOs and even colonels.” Reporters were made to leave the room when Gates opened the floor to questions from the airmen at this headquarters for US air combat forces.

 


Plutonium Reactor Is Closed:06 June 2008Russia closed down the second of its three remaining plutonium-producing reactors Thursday, part of a years-long effort by Moscow and Washington to shutter the Cold War-era facilities that produced material for nuclear weapons. The atomic energy agency, Rosatom, said in a statement that the ADE-5 reactor at the Siberian Chemical Plant in Seversk stopped operation and workers will begin removing remaining uranium fuel. It will take several years to dismantle the reactor's technical equipment. The plant's first reactor was shut down on April 20. The last plutonium-producing reactor, in the city of Zheleznogorsk, is expected to be shuttered by 2010.Located in secret cities, the plants were part of the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons complex and produced weapons-grade plutonium over the course of 50 years. But in the early years after the Soviet breakup, the Defense Ministry stopped buying the plutonium. The United States pushed for years to close down the plants, but they produced electricity and heat for nearby cities as a byproduct of their operations and the Russians did not want to leave Siberian cities without power before coal-fired replacement plants were built.

 


Parsing the Schumer Plan:09 June 2008,It's not only supply and demand that drives markets, it's fear itself. After the Israeli transportation minister threatened last week to attack Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, the price of oil jumped more than $10 a barrel, sending the U.S. stock market down by 400 points. In a recent Wall Street Journal commentary, U.S. Senator Charles Schumer proposed pressuring Iran to the bargaining table by imposing severe economic sanctions that could even "topple the theocracy." Germany and France are now ready to join with the United States and Britain in imposing sanctions -- though they will not be effective without Russia. China, the last key player, "may go along if everyone else will." This is the weakest link in his argument, which Schumer passes over with no further comment.

 


US, EU warn Iran of more sanctions:  BRDO (Slovenia), June 10: The United States and the European Union sought on Tuesday to turn up the pressure on Iran to drop its nuclear enrichment program, saying they were ready to go beyond a latest round of UN sanctions. But President George W. Bush acknowledged the limits of US influence over Tehran and, in the twilight of his presidency, appeared resigned to leaving the standoff to his successor.  “I leave behind a multilateral framework to work on this issue,” Bush told a news conference after a US-European Union summit at a Slovenian castle. “A group of countries can send a clear message to the Iranians, and that is: We’re going to continue to isolate you ... we’ll find new sanctions if need be, if you continue to deny the ‘just demands’ of the free world, which is to give up your enrichment program,” he said. He stopped short of repeating the US position that all options, including military action, remain open, suggesting that no drastic steps were likely before he leaves office. “Now is the time for there to be strong diplomacy,” Bush said. He met Slovenian leaders, who hold the EU’s rotating presidency, as well as European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who has led efforts to get Iran to drop its enrichment program. Solana is expected to travel to Iran soon to present a new offer by major powers of incentives for it to suspend uranium enrichment, but he has played down prospects of a breakthrough. “Iran with a nuclear weapon would be incredibly dangerous for world peace,” Bush said before setting off for Germany.

 


Bush, allies embrace possible Iran sanctions:  Wednesday, June 11, 2008, Jamadi-ul-sani 6, 1429 Kranj (Slovenia)—President Bush and European allies on Tuesday threatened tougher sanctions to squeeze Iran’s finances and derail its potential pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Bush said the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran would endanger world peace. “They can either face isolation, or they can have better relations with all of us,” Bush said of Iran’s leaders while capping his final European Union-U.S. summit. The president and EU leaders embraced new financial sanctions against Iran unless it verifiably suspends its nuclear enrichment. They said Iran must fully disclose any nuclear weapons work and allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to verify that work. Iran is also under fire for defying three sets of U.N. Security Council sanctions and continuing to enrich uranium — which can generate both nuclear fuel and the fissile material for the core of nuclear warheads. Iran insists that it has only civilian uses in mind for its nuclear program. The president flatly said Iran “can’t be trusted with enrichment.” “A group of countries can send a clear message to the Iranians,” Bush said. “And that is: we’re going to continue to isolate you, we’ll continue to work on sanctions, and we’ll find new sanctions if need be if you continue to deny the just demands of a free world.” Speaking to reporters on the lush, sun-splashed lawn near Brdo Castle, Bush also fielded questions on economic woes at home and climate change. Bush essentially rejected the idea of possible government intervention to prop up the value of the U.S. dollar.

 


Inclusion of Pakistan, India, Israel and N Korea needed for N-disarmament: * Nuclear official says new body hopes to recruit ‘like-minded states’ to cement NPT SYDNEY: The world may need a new nuclear weapons treaty that includes India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, an Australian official said on Tuesday. Former Foreign minister Gareth Evans, who was appointed chairman of a new international body for nuclear disarmament, said nuclear powers that currently refuse to join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) had to be included in a new process if the world were to abandon nuclear weapons.  “We’ve got to bring in India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea - all those that are presently with weapons but outside that framework,” Evans told Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio from Romania. “What you’re trying to do is create a framework in which rather than being outsiders, these guys once again become insiders. That may mean thinking about a whole new nuclear weapons treaty,” he added.  Like minded: Evans’ appointment as head of the Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Commission was announced by Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on Monday. Rudd said the new body hoped to recruit “like-minded countries” to strengthen the NPT.

 

 


European Leaders Back Bush on Iran:(11 June 2008) While in a tour to Europe, President Bush won European support to consider additional punitive sanctions against Iran, including restrictions on its banks, if Iran rejects a package of incentives to suspend its uranium enrichment program. A joint statement issued after the meeting urged Iran to “comply with its international obligations concerning its nuclear activities” and reaffirmed Western commitments to a “dual-track strategy,” employing the threat of punitive sanctions along with incentives to Iran.


Bush Says Iran Spurns New Offer on Uranium: (15 June 2008)President Bush accused Iran rejecting a new set of incentives to stop enriching uranium; only hours after the proposal received a cold shoulder when it was delivered by Western diplomats in Tehran. But before Mr. Bush spoke, an Iranian government spokesman, Gholamhossein Elham, made it clear in Tehran that stopping enrichment was unacceptable. “If the package includes suspension it is not debatable at all.”


US concerned over N-design distribution reports:  WASHINGTON, June 16: The White House has said it is concerned that the Khan network may have distributed designs of nuclear warheads and uranium enrichment technology among the so-called rogue nations. “We are very concerned about the A.Q. Khan network, both in terms of what they were doing by purveying enrichment technology and also the possibility that there would be weapons-related technology associated with it,” said National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley. He was commenting on US media reports that members of a network of nuclear proliferators, allegedly headed by Dr A.Q. Khan, had on their computers a design for an advanced nuclear weapon. Mr. Hadley said it was this concern that caused the US to roll up the network “fairly successfully” four years ago. “And part of that rolling up was to roll up the network and part of it was to pursue what kind of relationship the A.Q. Khan network had to individual countries with which they are dealing.” Asked if he had seen evidence to suggest that the Khan network had passed on weapons technology to countries like Iran, Libya and North Korea, Mr. Hadley said this was also a concern. “We’ve had some concerns about it.


Iran insists enrichment to continue:  DUBAI, June 17: Iran said on Tuesday that it respond at the “appropriate” time to an international incentive package aimed at reining in its nuclear program. But it underlined that uranium enrichment would continue despite warnings of new European sanctions if it rejects the offer. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana pressed Iran to respond to the package, which offers economic incentives if Iran agrees to halt enrichment, a process the US and its allies fear Tehran, will use to build a nuclear weapon. Tehran says its nuclear program is peaceful. Solana said on Tuesday he cannot wait “years” for a response but hasn’t given a deadline. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran will study the proposals and will respond “at an appropriate time,” the official IRNA news agency reported. His deputy Ali Reza Sheikh Attar said Iran will respond “as soon as possible.” But Sheikh Attar added: “We have repeatedly said that uranium enrichment is Iran’s red line and that we must enjoy this technology,” according to IRNA. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Monday that EU nations have agreed on the need for a new round of sanctions to discourage Iran from developing nuclear weapons.


Iran weighing nuclear offer:  * Parliament to study package with ‘alertness’, says speaker TEHRAN: Iran was on Sunday considering an offer from world powers aimed at resolving the six-year nuclear crisis but hopes of a breakthrough were dim after Tehran appeared to bluntly reject a key condition. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana delivered over the offer on behalf of world powers to top Iranian officials on Saturday, saying it was “full of opportunities” for the Islamic republic. The deal offers talks on a package of technological and economic incentives, so long as Tehran suspends uranium enrichment activities, which the West fears could be used to make an atomic bomb. But barely hours into Solana’s visit, had Iranian government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham announced that Tehran would reject any package that does not allow it to enrich uranium, the key sticking point in the crisis. The hard-line Kayhan newspaper, the mouthpiece of Iran’s authorities, scoffed at the package and said Solana “was not here to negotiate but on a mission to threaten Iran”.


World can deal with Iran if it redefines itself: Khalilzad:  LONDON: Countries around the world can have normal relations with Iran if the Islamic Republic redefines itself and stops meddling in the affairs of its neighbors, Zalmay Khalilzad said in an interview Monday. Speaking to the Financial Times, the American ambassador to the United Nations added that he did not think there was a “silver bullet” to solving the Middle East’s problems, in particular regarding the Israel-Palestinian conflict and said major players in the Middle East use the Israel-Palestinian conflict “as a stick with which to beat each other.” Khalilzad said it was “possible to come to terms with an Iran that defines its objectives in a regional way and acts as a nation state, not as a revolution.” “Iran is a significant challenge and will remain so for some time. How do you have an Iran that has an appropriate role and defines that role in a way that it can live with the world and the world can live with it?” “I don’t believe that for the Iranians this is the most important issue.” Nuclear offer: Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said on Monday that the quicker Iran responds to an offer from world powers aimed at resolving the nuclear standoff the better. Solana, who made the cooperation offer to Iranian leaders on Saturday, said that so far there had been no response from Tehran to the initiative from the group of six - Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

 


In Defense Policy, France Turns to U.S. and Europe: (17 June 2008)France has decided that its security lies within Europe and NATO, establishing a significant shift from the country’s longstanding notions of moral and military self-sufficiency. The new military and security strategy, which Mr. Sarkozy presented, calls for a smaller, more mobile French Army, with savings spent on better intelligence and modern equipment. The new defense doctrine seeks to prepare France and Europe for a post-Soviet world in which conventional military threats are downgraded compared with a multitude of complex, global risks, from epidemics to terrorism and cyber warfare.


Brown Says Europe Will Tighten Iran Sanctions (18 June 2008)Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that Britain and the European Union would freeze the overseas assets of Iran’s largest commercial bank, joining the United States in intensifying financial pressure against Iran over its refusal to address international concern over its nuclear activities. Mr. Brown also said that if Iran continued to defy existing United Nations resolutions calling for it to halt uranium enrichment, European leaders would begin considering sanctions on investments in Iran’s oil and natural gas industries.

 


Demand to halt enrichment illegitimate, says Iran:   * Tehran’s IAEA envoy rejects West’s ‘illegal’ pressure to stop enrichment TEHRAN: Iran will never surrender to an “illegitimate” demand by major world powers that it halt uranium enrichment, Iran’s state radio on Wednesday quoted the country’s envoy to the UN atomic watchdog as saying.  “Iran will never give in to the illegitimate and illegal pressure of the West (to freeze its uranium enrichment),” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh in a speech in London about the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The EU’s top diplomat, Javier Solana, presented Tehran on Saturday with a new package of economic incentives designed to persuade it to curb its nuclear work, which the West fears is aimed a building a nuclear weapon. Solana said Iran should stop enrichment during negotiations to implement the offer. The package agreed by the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany last month and delivered by Solana is a revised version of one rejected by Iran in 2006. The UN Security Council has hit Iran with three rounds of sanctions for refusing to halt its enrichment work, as demanded by the council.

 


Crucial meeting on India-US nuclear deal postponed :  * Indian government, communist allies to meet on June 25 NEW DELHI: A meeting between India’s government and its communist allies to break a deadlock over a nuclear deal with the United States was postponed on Wednesday, clouding the fate of a pact that is badly running out of time. “Obviously, behind-the-scene talks are going on between the left and the government,” political analyst Kuldip Nayar said. “It means the government is still trying to persuade the Left to let them go ahead, and there seems to be some hope because the meeting has only been postponed.” A communist leader said the next meeting was scheduled for June 25, but the Congress-led coalition has yet to confirm this.  The communists oppose the deal, saying it compromises India’s sovereignty and security and have threatened to withdraw vital support from the ruling coalition if the government moves ahead with it. The deal, which promises India access to American nuclear fuel and technology, is also viewed as vital to the huge energy needs of Asia’s third-largest economy, whose growth is being threatened by soaring international crude prices and high inflation.

 


Pakistan committed to non-proliferation:  US:  WASHINGTON: The United States has expressed trust in the Pakistan government’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, while dismissing AQ Khan network’s relevance to the issue. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said on Tuesday that he had no new assessment to offer when asked to comment on recent media reports about activities of the network. “The most important thing is that the AQ Khan network has been out of business and it is not in a position to engage in proliferation activities,” Casey told reporters. However, the spokesman said, the US position has been that no member of the AQ Khan network should be free to carry out proliferation activities. The US continues to work with Pakistan and other members of the international community against nuclear proliferation, he added. “Here is the bottom line, the United States has confidence that the Government of Pakistan is not engaging in proliferation activities.”

 


  

MISSILE RELATED ISSUES

 

N Korea fires short-range missiles:  Tuesday, June 10, 2008, Jamadi-ul-sani 5, 1429 Seoul — North Korea has fired three short-range missiles off its west coast, Yonhap news agency reported Saturday. The South Korean agency, quoting a government source, said the missiles were fired on Friday into the Yellow Sea off Jeungsan County, some 40 kilometers (25 miles) west of Pyongyang. The testing was part of a military training exercise involving Russian-designed Styx ship-to-ship missiles with a range of 46 kilometers, the report said. “The missile launch, like the test-firing conducted on March 28, is part of normal military training aimed at testing the performance of the missiles and improving operational readiness,” the source was quoted in the report saying. A South Korean defense ministry spokesman refused to comment. “We don’t comment on any matter of intelligence,” he said. The report came after South and North Korean nuclear envoys met in Beijing on Friday for about an hour over attempts to end the North’s nuclear program. North Korea fired three or four missiles of the same type on March 28 in what was then described by the South Korean government as “part of a regular military exercise.”  But the move raised the stakes in North Korea’s nuclear dispute with South Korea and the United States, which are attempting to secure a full declaration of North Korea’s atomic activities.


 

PROLIFERATION & SECURITY

 

A.Q. Khan denies selling N-weapon blueprints:   ISLAMABAD, June 17: Top nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan on Tuesday denied selling blueprints for an advanced nuclear weapon to Iran or North Korea, telling AFP that western countries were to blame. Mr. Khan’s comments came a day after a former arms inspector said in a report that the United States and the UN atomic watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency must be allowed to question Mr. Khan to learn if he sold the plans. “This is all a lie there is no truth in this. It is total bullshit,” Khan told AFP by telephone from his Islamabad villa. “It’s pure lies and nonsense. It’s part of America’s campaign to pressure Pakistan,” Khan told Reuters by telephone. “The Western countries are suppliers of the technology, they sold it and they are the proliferators.... Why don’t they publish juicy stories about Israel? There is not a single word about Israel on the nuclear is sue,” he added.  Former UN arms inspector David Albright said on Monday, after details of his draft report appeared in US newspapers, that there was a danger that Mr. Khan might be released without having to answer questions about the sensitive blueprints.

 


Dr Khan says European businesses provided N-technology to Iran, Libya:  WASHINGTON, June 4: Nuclear scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan told US media on Tuesday that he was not responsible for passing nuclear secrets to Iran and Libya. In an interview with the McClatchy news organization, Dr Khan said that he introduced Tripoli and Tehran to Western businesses that provided the know-how on building a nuclear weapons program. Mr. Khan, regarded as the father of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, said in a televised confession in February 2004 that he had run a network that passed atomic secrets and smuggled equipment and technological advice to Iran, North Korea and Libya over a period of 15 years. But he recanted that admission in his interview with McClatchy, telling the news agency that he had merely given Iran and Libya “very small advice” on where to acquire the technology. “When Iran and Libya wanted to do their program, they asked our advice. We said: ‘OK, these are the suppliers, who provide all’.” Dr Khan said that the companies who provided the technology to the two countries were European. “The Germans have those drawings. The South Africans have those drawings. The French have those drawings. They were the suppliers. You can’t blame me for it. They were selling. They were making money. Why put blame on me?” Dr Khan said during the interview from his villa in Islamabad, where he remains under house arrest. Dr Khan said that nuclear secrets obtained by North Korea came from Russia.

 


US warns Pakistan over release of Dr Khan:  Tuesday, June 17, 2008
By Azim M Mian NEW YORK: The US has warned Pakistan in very categorical terms that the release of Dr AQ Khan “could cause a world of trouble” for Pakistan, according to New York Times of June 16. Quoting a US administration senior official, the daily also said there is a chaos among the decision-makers in Pakistan and no one can find who is making the decision in Islamabad. About the popular talk in Pakistan about Dr Qadeer Khan’s possible release, NY Times has reported that the American officials have been involved in the effort to stop any possible release of Dr AQ Khan through quiet diplomacy.

 


 

OPINION / EDITORIAL

Threatening Iran (10 June 2008)The United States and the other major powers need to address Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, but with more assertive diplomacy — including greater financial pressures — not more threats or war planning. If sanctions and incentives cannot be made to work, the voices arguing for military action will only get louder. No matter what aides may be telling Mr. Bush and Mr. Olmert — or what they may be telling each other — an attack on Iran would be a disaster?


How safe are our nukes?   Wednesday, June 04, 2008 By Lt-Gen (r) Hamid Nawaz Khan
May you have the hindsight to know where you have been, the foresight to know where you are going and the insight to know when you are going too far. -- An Irish toast From the geo-strategic point of view Pakistan is one of the most important countries in the world. In the north and east it has common borders with two regional powers, China and India and is a gateway to the Central Asian republics, Pakistan cannot be ignored in the context of the events in Afghanistan. Its common border with Iran and its proximity to the Gulf's rich oil resources enhance its importance for the developed world, the United States, in particular. This factor is further reinforced by the facts that Pakistan can provide to China access to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean; while it can deny to India land trade routes to Afghanistan and access to the energy resources of the CARs and Iran. Pakistan is also the only nuclear-capable Muslim state. An unstable Pakistan is, therefore, extremely worrisome to world powers.


How safe are our nukes?  Tuesday, June 10, 2008 By Lt-Gen (r) Hamid Nawaz Khan Secondly, the nuclear threshold is directly proportional to the conventional weapons capability. The weaker of the two adversaries will be constrained first to use nuclear weapons. In any future war with India, in all probability, Pakistan will be forced to first use of nuclear weapons if its nuclear threshold is crossed due to major territorial losses, forces attrition or economic degradation. Credibility of deterrence wholly rests in the perceived ability of the decision-makers to take this next-to-impossible decision at the most critical moment, to demonstrate the will and determination of the nation to safeguard her national interests. This really is the backbone of nuclear deterrence.  Israeli Intelligence experts, once debating the failure of their deterrence in the Arab-Israel war of 1973, concluded that "there is no deterrence against an irrational enemy." In the popular world perception a Muslim leader, while fighting for the cause of Islam, could be irrational and if required, could order a nuclear strike, unmindful of the consequences. Such fears are considered well founded in dictatorial or theocratic forms of government as opposed to democratic rule.


India doctrine & regional crises:  Wednesday, June 11, 2008, Jamadi-ul-sani 6, 142 Dr Abdul Ruff. Indian ambitions for a world power status are too great to actualize them, but, nevertheless, India does not want to give up its efforts, by effectively making use of emerging opportunities. India’s greed for regional supremacy has caused enough problems and confusion in its neighborhoods. Today the entire South Asian region is undergoing serious turmoils and Indian role in these is a known fact. Double-standards being meticulously employed by New Delhi to project itself as the most important democracy with a lot of secular credentials escape the attention of the world and its next neighbors and, as a result, India even claims to be a “suffer and victim” of so-called Islamic “fundamentalism and terrorism”. Discovery of secret grave-yards in Kashmir have at long last have woken up the Kashmiri patriots, who have already sacrifices thousands and thousands of their kith and kin for the sacred cause of regaining sovereignty from an arrogant occupier India, to search of a common platform to face the Indian brutality. Indian tricky journey towards an “innocent” country, being “troubled” by its “terrorist” neighbors, including Kashmiri “terrorists”, is indeed interesting.


A Q Khan -- the other side:   Wednesday, June 18, 2008 By Ali Abbas Rizvi Recently there has been a change in the status of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb. He is giving interviews to the media and enjoying greater freedom with respect to his movements. Certainly, there has been a change in the condition of the eminent scientist, who was restricted to his home since 2004 when he confessed to supplying technology to "rogue states." The question arises: what is happening on the A Q Khan front and what is the possibility of his release and its possible consequences. Apparently, three aspects have helped to bring about the present state of affairs. First of all, there has been a change in the government, which is following a policy of openness, or the Pakistani version of glasnost. It wants to be perceived as different from its predecessor, democratic and liberal in all respects.


U-turns on Iran:  Finally, Europe is ready to step up sanctions.  June 18, 2008 Stonewalling. Obfuscation. Threats. Two years of Iranian intransigence have removed any doubt that the leadership in Tehran is determined to develop the technology for a nuclear bomb -- if not the weapons themselves -- as quickly as possible. And after more than two years of giving Iran the benefit of every doubt, and last weekend sweetening their offer of incentives if it agreed to suspend nuclear enrichment, the European Union and Britain announced Monday that they will at last impose tougher financial sanctions. Of course, the sanctions are mainly symbolic, and Iran will find ways to circumvent them. But that does not make them any less important politically. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been able to capitalize on the global unpopularity of President Bush, dismissing legitimate international concerns about Iran's nuclear intentions as an attempt by a warmongering, intelligence-cooking enemy to subjugate and humiliate another Muslim nation. But Ahmadinejad will have a harder time making the case that Britain's Labor prime minister, Gordon Brown, and the European Union are the lap dogs of the lame-duck U.S. president.


 



South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

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Journal of South Asian Nonproliferation Issues

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