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The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation February, 2008 Editorial Staff
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The Journal of South Asian
Non-Proliferation is an online compendium of non-proliferation related
publications.
It is a periodic compilation of news, official statements, and expert analyses
related to South Asian non-proliferation issues.
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Supporting worldwide understanding of South Asian non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament issues. The Journal of South Asian
Non-Proliferation CONTENTSNUCLEAR
RELATED ISSUES MISSILE RELATED
ISSUES Agni missile to get multiple warheads India to favour France for 1.5 bln euro war plane
contract: Thales IsraelÕs
missile test and Iranian nuclear ambitions Pakistan Tests Nuclear-Capable Missile SUMMARIES
When
could Iran deliver a nuclear weapon? By
Richard L. Garwin | 18 January 2008 The traditional concern about Iran's
capability to deliver a nuclear weapon involves an Iranian ballistic missile
that could reach the United States from Iran. Therefore, in this piece the
author describes the current state and expected time when Iran could achieve
these capabilities on the basis of recent statements by U.S. government officials,
the unclassified portion of the December 2007 Iran National Intelligence
Estimate [PDF], and data from an April 2006 interview with the head of Iran's
Atomic Energy Organization. US
trying to block Indo-Iran gas pipeline project: Foreign Secy. 23 Jan
2008, KOCHI: The United States has been "trying to block" the
Indo-Iran gas pipeline via Pakistan, as it did not want Iran to expand its
contacts in the region, former Foreign Secretary Salman Haider said on
Wednesday. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Conference on the
'India/China/US Triangle' here, Haider
said "(the) US was trying to 'block' the project as it does not want
Iran to expand its contacts in the Asian region and this deprives us of a
very important opportunity for improving our relation with Pakistan". India was interested in
obtaining gas supplies from Iran to fuel its growing economy and the pipeline
project would augur well for its future, he said. Speaking at a session on
'Sino-US relations and India', Haidar said if India and China, the two fast
growing economies, work together, it would be difficult for any country to
budge them. Uranium
output rises in Kazakhstan and Australia during 2007, 23 January 2008 Kazakhstan and Australia both
reported double-digit increases in uranium production during 2007. Kazakh
output increased over 25%, despite a shortage of sulfuric acid, whilst
Australian output grew 13%. The countries are the world's second and third
biggest major uranium suppliers, after Canada. KazAtomProm announced that
Kazakhstan's uranium production increased 25.7% in 2007, to 6637 tonnes (7827
tonnes U3O8), compared with output of 5281 tonnes (6228 tonnes U3O8) in 2006.
The total production volume includes the share of KazAtomProm, joint ventures
of KazAtomProm and the Stepnogorsk Mining Chemical Complex, which is managed
by KazAtomProm. Production in 2007 was 1000 tonnes less than planned due to a
shortage of sulfuric acid in Kazakhstan following a fire at a production
plant and the delayed start-up of some new facilities. Sulfuric acid is the
main chemical component during production of uranium using the in-situ leach
(ISL) method. Tremors,
as nuke fuel arrives in Iran. 24
January 2008. Russia on Monday delivered the last batch of nuclear fuel for
IranÕs light-water reactor in the southern city of Bushehr. ThatÕs a little
over a month after the first batch arrived. The West worries that spent fuel
from the 1,000 megawatt reactor could be reprocessed to make fissile material
for a bomb and that the nuclear plant is a reward Iran doesnÕt deserve. They
fear such deals undermine efforts to pressure Iran to give up its drive to
master nuclear enrichment, a process that is the trickiest part of building
your own atomic weapons. IAEA
makes 1st visit to Iran centrifuge site. VIENNA (Reuters) 24 January 2008 - Iran has allowed top U.N. nuclear
monitors to visit an advanced centrifuge development site for the first time
in a gesture of transparency about its disputed atomic program, diplomats
familiar with the matter said. One of the diplomats, close to the International
Atomic Energy Agency, said the IAEA was nearing the end of an inquiry into
Iran's nuclear activity and cited concern [that] a new big power move to
increase sanctions on Tehran could hurt the process. Western diplomats said
Iran's move was not significant and was no reason to relieve sanctions
pressure on Tehran. Six world powers agreed in Berlin on Tuesday to the
outline of a new U.N. sanctions resolution, although diplomats said the draft
lacked punitive trade measures Washington had sought. Pakistan:
Nuclear Assets Safe – 27
January 2008 - By MATTHEW
PENNINGTON – ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistan is increasingly
alert to the possible threat of Islamic extremists seeking control of its
nuclear weapons, but its security system is fail-safe despite the rising
militancy in the country, a top official said Saturday.Some 10,000 soldiers
have been deployed to secure the U.S.-ally's nuclear facilities as part of a
command and control system headed by President Pervez Musharraf and other top
officials, said Khalid Kidwai, head of the Strategic Plans Division which
handles Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. "There's no conceivable scenario,
political or violent, in which Pakistan will fall to extremists of the
al-Qaida or Taliban type," the retired general said at a briefing for
foreign journalists. "Pakistan's nuclear weapons, fissile material and
infrastructure are absolutely safe and secure." Kidwai said his division
still planned for any contingency and has reassessed the militant threat in
light of escalating attacks on security forces and intelligence personnel,
although it had received no intelligence of a terrorist plot against the
nuclear facilities. "You are always responding to threats, the last six
months is no exception," he said. "The state of alertness has gone
up." Pakistan, which acquired its nuclear technology secretly and
outside international oversight, tested its atom bomb in 1998 in response to
a test by its historical rival and neighbor, India. P5 + 1 Agree to
Resolution On Iran - 27 January 2008
Germany and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council
– Russia, Britain, China, the U.S., and France – have agreed to
seek a new U.N. Security Council resolution against Iran over its nuclear
program. The Security Council has already passed two resolutions imposing
sanctions on Iran because the Iranian government refuses to suspend its
uranium-enrichment and other proliferation sensitive nuclear activities. Such
activities can support IranÕs acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability.
GermanyÕs Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced the decision by the
six countries, known as the P5+1. He said, ÒWe are in agreement that a
nuclear weapon in IranÕs hands would have dramatic consequences for the
region. So we are and remain agreed that we must and will continue to work
together, and with determination to ensure that it does not happen.Ó
India
develops missile defence system - BANGALORE:
28 January 2008 - India has developed a two-layered ballistic missile defence
system to counter enemy missiles. It has been configured with radars for
long-range surveillance, tracking, command, control, communication and
interception to destroy enemy ballistic missiles. The two-layered system,
comprising ÒexoÓ and ÒendoÓ atmospheric interceptors, destroys incoming
ballistic missiles at altitudes above 40 km and below 25 km, respectively.
The exo-atmospheric interception was successfully tried on November 27 at an
altitude of 48 km while the endo-atmospheric high supersonic missile (also
called as AAD) was successfully put on trial in the first week of December.
Another trial demonstrating the interception of a live ballistic missile was
held on December 6 at an island near Orissa. The interceptors were developed
at the Electronics and Radar Development Establishment (LRDE) in Bangalore at
a cost of Rs.2,000 crore. Agni
missile to get multiple warheads - Ajai
Shukla / Hyderabad January 28, 2008 - If the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre is
the heart of IndiaÕs nuclear deterrent, the Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL)
in Hyderabad is its limbs and sinews. The ASL Director, Avinash Chander,
takes us through a spotless assembly room, where technicians are bolting
sensitive instruments into the nose of a giant Agni-3 missile. It is eerie;
before long, this very missile will roar off a launch pad on WheelerÕs Island
in Orissa. It will travel 350 km above the earth, re-enter the atmosphere at
a speed of 5 kilometers per second, experiencing temperatures of 3000 degrees
centigrade. But the scientists here are cheerfully confident of repeating
last AprilÕs success, and proving the missileÕs ability to deliver a
one-and-a-half-ton nuclear bomb to within 100 metres of a target 3000
kilometers away. And that is routine stuff, compared to what IndiaÕs Chief
Controller of Missiles and Strategic Systems (CC-MSS), Dr VK Saraswat, has
divulged to Business Standard. He says that ASL is now working on new warhead
technologies, which will equip the Agni-3 and all future missiles. The new
warheads (usually nuclear bombs) will be capable of sneaking through enemy
anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defences, fooling enemy radars and dodging enemy
missiles. India
to favour France for 1.5 bln euro war plane contract: Thales. - New Delhi (AFP) Jan 23, 2008 India's
government is set to announce that France will be sole bidder for a contract
worth up to 1.5 billion euros to upgrade its Mirage fighters, the French
defence firm Thales said Wednesday. The official announcement of a reserved
tender will coincide with a state visit to New Delhi by President Nicolas
Sarkozy on Friday, said Thales' India director Francois Dupont. The move
would be a major a boost for Paris' efforts to remain a primary player in the
burgeoning Indian defence market, following serious problems with other
contracts. "We are expecting an announcement from India on Friday that
they will soon launch a tender reserved for French companies," Dupont
told AFP. France would be the "sole and exclusive" bidder, he said.
The Indian Air Force has 51 Mirage-2000 war planes, which are made by
Dassault with electronics from Thales, that need a major upgrade. A
consortium including Thales and Dassault has been facing stiff competition
for an upgrade contract from Israel. "Israeli groups have been looking for
us to make a mistake," Dupont said, adding, "We don't have a blank
cheque, there will be a lot of negotiating." A contract was not expected
to be signed before the end of the year or even 2009, sources involved in the
negotiations said. IsraelÕs missile test and
Iranian nuclear ambitions
January 25, 2008 - Early last Thursday morning, 17 January 2008,
Israel successfully conducted a missile test from a principal launch site at
Palmahim air force base, south of Tel Aviv. The defence establishment
remained relatively tight-lipped, though it was suspected that the rocket
propulsion system of Israel's long range Jericho III missile was checked,
which has the capacity to carry both conventional and non-conventional
warheads of over 1000 kg.[1] Officials conveyed that it was "part of a
future multi-layered defence system designed to counter threats Israel faces
from neighbouring countries,"[2] which befits Defence Minister Ehud
Barak's pledge to further develop such a project upon taking office last
summer.[3] That this missile could be deployed as part of a military action
to curb the potentially existential threat posed by a nuclear armed Iran is
certainly plausible, but what is the deeper message about Israel's
intentions? Pakistan
Tests Nuclear-Capable Missile - By
MUNIR AHMAD – 25th January 2008 - ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP)
— Pakistan on Friday successfully test-fired a medium-range,
nuclear-capable ballistic missile, an event witnessed by the nation's new
army chief, the military said. The Strategic Missile Group launched the
Shaheen-1 missile from an undisclosed location at the conclusion of the
army's annual field training exercises, a statement said. The missile has a
range of 420 miles. Nuclear-armed Pakistan routinely tests the various
missiles in its arsenal, designed to match that of neighboring archrival
India. Friday's launch was witnessed by army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, who
congratulated the troops on achieving "high standards of training and
excellent results" during the exercise, the statement said.
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