The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation

February, 2008


Editorial Staff
Maria Sultan, Editor-in-Chief
Bharath G, Research Analyst
       Nick Robson, Production Support

 

 

 

The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation is an online compendium of non-proliferation related publications.
It is a periodic compilation of news, official statements, and expert analyses related to South Asian non-proliferation issues.

 


 


 

Supporting worldwide understanding of South Asian non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament issues.


The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation
is a Product of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)


CONTENTS 

NUCLEAR RELATED ISSUES
When could Iran deliver a nuclear weapon?
US trying to block Indo-Iran gas pipeline project: Foreign Secy.
Uranium output rises in Kazakhstan and Australia during 2007
Tremors, as nuke fuel arrives in Iran.
IAEA makes 1st visit to Iran centrifuge site.
Pakistan: Nuclear Assets Safe

MISSILE RELATED ISSUES
India develops missile defence system

Agni missile to get multiple warheads

India to favour France for 1.5 bln euro war plane contract: Thales

IsraelÕs missile test and Iranian nuclear ambitions

Pakistan Tests Nuclear-Capable Missile

 


SUMMARIES

 

NUCLEAR RELATED ISSUES

       When could Iran deliver a nuclear weapon? By Richard L. Garwin | 18 January 2008 The traditional concern about Iran's capability to deliver a nuclear weapon involves an Iranian ballistic missile that could reach the United States from Iran. Therefore, in this piece the author describes the current state and expected time when Iran could achieve these capabilities on the basis of recent statements by U.S. government officials, the unclassified portion of the December 2007 Iran National Intelligence Estimate [PDF], and data from an April 2006 interview with the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.


US trying to block Indo-Iran gas pipeline project: Foreign Secy. 23 Jan 2008, KOCHI: The United States has been "trying to block" the Indo-Iran gas pipeline via Pakistan, as it did not want Iran to expand its contacts in the region, former Foreign Secretary Salman Haider said on Wednesday. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Conference on the 'India/China/US Triangle' here, Haider said "(the) US was trying to 'block' the project as it does not want Iran to expand its contacts in the Asian region and this deprives us of a very important opportunity for improving our relation with Pakistan".

India was interested in obtaining gas supplies from Iran to fuel its growing economy and the pipeline project would augur well for its future, he said. Speaking at a session on 'Sino-US relations and India', Haidar said if India and China, the two fast growing economies, work together, it would be difficult for any country to budge them.

 


Uranium output rises in Kazakhstan and Australia during 2007, 23 January 2008

Kazakhstan and Australia both reported double-digit increases in uranium production during 2007. Kazakh output increased over 25%, despite a shortage of sulfuric acid, whilst Australian output grew 13%. The countries are the world's second and third biggest major uranium suppliers, after Canada. KazAtomProm announced that Kazakhstan's uranium production increased 25.7% in 2007, to 6637 tonnes (7827 tonnes U3O8), compared with output of 5281 tonnes (6228 tonnes U3O8) in 2006. The total production volume includes the share of KazAtomProm, joint ventures of KazAtomProm and the Stepnogorsk Mining Chemical Complex, which is managed by KazAtomProm. Production in 2007 was 1000 tonnes less than planned due to a shortage of sulfuric acid in Kazakhstan following a fire at a production plant and the delayed start-up of some new facilities. Sulfuric acid is the main chemical component during production of uranium using the in-situ leach (ISL) method.


Tremors, as nuke fuel arrives in Iran. 24 January 2008. Russia on Monday delivered the last batch of nuclear fuel for IranÕs light-water reactor in the southern city of Bushehr. ThatÕs a little over a month after the first batch arrived. The West worries that spent fuel from the 1,000 megawatt reactor could be reprocessed to make fissile material for a bomb and that the nuclear plant is a reward Iran doesnÕt deserve. They fear such deals undermine efforts to pressure Iran to give up its drive to master nuclear enrichment, a process that is the trickiest part of building your own atomic weapons.


IAEA makes 1st visit to Iran centrifuge site. VIENNA (Reuters) 24 January 2008 - Iran has allowed top U.N. nuclear monitors to visit an advanced centrifuge development site for the first time in a gesture of transparency about its disputed atomic program, diplomats familiar with the matter said. One of the diplomats, close to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the IAEA was nearing the end of an inquiry into Iran's nuclear activity and cited concern [that] a new big power move to increase sanctions on Tehran could hurt the process. Western diplomats said Iran's move was not significant and was no reason to relieve sanctions pressure on Tehran. Six world powers agreed in Berlin on Tuesday to the outline of a new U.N. sanctions resolution, although diplomats said the draft lacked punitive trade measures Washington had sought.


Pakistan: Nuclear Assets Safe27 January 2008 - By MATTHEW PENNINGTON – ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistan is increasingly alert to the possible threat of Islamic extremists seeking control of its nuclear weapons, but its security system is fail-safe despite the rising militancy in the country, a top official said Saturday.Some 10,000 soldiers have been deployed to secure the U.S.-ally's nuclear facilities as part of a command and control system headed by President Pervez Musharraf and other top officials, said Khalid Kidwai, head of the Strategic Plans Division which handles Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. "There's no conceivable scenario, political or violent, in which Pakistan will fall to extremists of the al-Qaida or Taliban type," the retired general said at a briefing for foreign journalists. "Pakistan's nuclear weapons, fissile material and infrastructure are absolutely safe and secure." Kidwai said his division still planned for any contingency and has reassessed the militant threat in light of escalating attacks on security forces and intelligence personnel, although it had received no intelligence of a terrorist plot against the nuclear facilities. "You are always responding to threats, the last six months is no exception," he said. "The state of alertness has gone up." Pakistan, which acquired its nuclear technology secretly and outside international oversight, tested its atom bomb in 1998 in response to a test by its historical rival and neighbor, India.


P5 + 1 Agree to Resolution On Iran - 27 January 2008 Germany and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – Russia, Britain, China, the U.S., and France – have agreed to seek a new U.N. Security Council resolution against Iran over its nuclear program. The Security Council has already passed two resolutions imposing sanctions on Iran because the Iranian government refuses to suspend its uranium-enrichment and other proliferation sensitive nuclear activities. Such activities can support IranÕs acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability. GermanyÕs Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced the decision by the six countries, known as the P5+1. He said, ÒWe are in agreement that a nuclear weapon in IranÕs hands would have dramatic consequences for the region. So we are and remain agreed that we must and will continue to work together, and with determination to ensure that it does not happen.Ó


  

Missile & Space RELATED ISSUES

 

India develops missile defence system - BANGALORE: 28 January 2008 - India has developed a two-layered ballistic missile defence system to counter enemy missiles. It has been configured with radars for long-range surveillance, tracking, command, control, communication and interception to destroy enemy ballistic missiles. The two-layered system, comprising ÒexoÓ and ÒendoÓ atmospheric interceptors, destroys incoming ballistic missiles at altitudes above 40 km and below 25 km, respectively. The exo-atmospheric interception was successfully tried on November 27 at an altitude of 48 km while the endo-atmospheric high supersonic missile (also called as AAD) was successfully put on trial in the first week of December. Another trial demonstrating the interception of a live ballistic missile was held on December 6 at an island near Orissa. The interceptors were developed at the Electronics and Radar Development Establishment (LRDE) in Bangalore at a cost of Rs.2,000 crore.


Agni missile to get multiple warheads - Ajai Shukla / Hyderabad January 28, 2008 - If the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre is the heart of IndiaÕs nuclear deterrent, the Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL) in Hyderabad is its limbs and sinews. The ASL Director, Avinash Chander, takes us through a spotless assembly room, where technicians are bolting sensitive instruments into the nose of a giant Agni-3 missile. It is eerie; before long, this very missile will roar off a launch pad on WheelerÕs Island in Orissa. It will travel 350 km above the earth, re-enter the atmosphere at a speed of 5 kilometers per second, experiencing temperatures of 3000 degrees centigrade. But the scientists here are cheerfully confident of repeating last AprilÕs success, and proving the missileÕs ability to deliver a one-and-a-half-ton nuclear bomb to within 100 metres of a target 3000 kilometers away. And that is routine stuff, compared to what IndiaÕs Chief Controller of Missiles and Strategic Systems (CC-MSS), Dr VK Saraswat, has divulged to Business Standard. He says that ASL is now working on new warhead technologies, which will equip the Agni-3 and all future missiles. The new warheads (usually nuclear bombs) will be capable of sneaking through enemy anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defences, fooling enemy radars and dodging enemy missiles.

 


 India to favour France for 1.5 bln euro war plane contract: Thales. - New Delhi (AFP) Jan 23, 2008 India's government is set to announce that France will be sole bidder for a contract worth up to 1.5 billion euros to upgrade its Mirage fighters, the French defence firm Thales said Wednesday. The official announcement of a reserved tender will coincide with a state visit to New Delhi by President Nicolas Sarkozy on Friday, said Thales' India director Francois Dupont. The move would be a major a boost for Paris' efforts to remain a primary player in the burgeoning Indian defence market, following serious problems with other contracts. "We are expecting an announcement from India on Friday that they will soon launch a tender reserved for French companies," Dupont told AFP. France would be the "sole and exclusive" bidder, he said. The Indian Air Force has 51 Mirage-2000 war planes, which are made by Dassault with electronics from Thales, that need a major upgrade. A consortium including Thales and Dassault has been facing stiff competition for an upgrade contract from Israel. "Israeli groups have been looking for us to make a mistake," Dupont said, adding, "We don't have a blank cheque, there will be a lot of negotiating." A contract was not expected to be signed before the end of the year or even 2009, sources involved in the negotiations said.

 


IsraelÕs missile test and Iranian nuclear ambitions January 25, 2008 - Early last Thursday morning, 17 January 2008, Israel successfully conducted a missile test from a principal launch site at Palmahim air force base, south of Tel Aviv. The defence establishment remained relatively tight-lipped, though it was suspected that the rocket propulsion system of Israel's long range Jericho III missile was checked, which has the capacity to carry both conventional and non-conventional warheads of over 1000 kg.[1] Officials conveyed that it was "part of a future multi-layered defence system designed to counter threats Israel faces from neighbouring countries,"[2] which befits Defence Minister Ehud Barak's pledge to further develop such a project upon taking office last summer.[3] That this missile could be deployed as part of a military action to curb the potentially existential threat posed by a nuclear armed Iran is certainly plausible, but what is the deeper message about Israel's intentions?


Pakistan Tests Nuclear-Capable Missile - By MUNIR AHMAD – 25th January 2008 - ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistan on Friday successfully test-fired a medium-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile, an event witnessed by the nation's new army chief, the military said. The Strategic Missile Group launched the Shaheen-1 missile from an undisclosed location at the conclusion of the army's annual field training exercises, a statement said. The missile has a range of 420 miles. Nuclear-armed Pakistan routinely tests the various missiles in its arsenal, designed to match that of neighboring archrival India. Friday's launch was witnessed by army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, who congratulated the troops on achieving "high standards of training and excellent results" during the exercise, the statement said.

 

 



South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) is an independent think tank dedicated to promoting peace and stability in the South Asian region. SASSI contributes to the international debate on contemporary South Asian security issues through this and other substantive products.

Journal of South Asian Nonproliferation Issues

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