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Climate Change in South Asia: A Precursor for Conflict? By Nick Robson, CSCM, MA South Asian Strategic Stability Institute, London, United Kingdom
India, in a construction project that will eventually cover over two thousand miles, cross hundreds of rivers and divide miles of woodlands and fields, is sealing their border with Bangladesh. The border is defined by two rows of barbed wire barriers, spiked posts and filled with miles of barbed wire coils. The $1.2 billion project will nearly encircle Bangladesh. The fear in New Delhi, besides the normal belief that it will stop incursions by insurgents from Bangladesh, is that the low lying counrty is prone to flooding and typhoons and may well be susceptible to catastrophic flooding dus to climate change.[1] The world is today at a tipping point in many areas, global warming, peak oil, rapidly growing population levels and rapidly rising energy demand. The global environmental situation facing the entire international community over the balance of this century and beyond is fraught with danger. There is a growing realization that achieving energy and climate security is at the core of future global challenges, with implications that go well beyond their traditional policy spheres.[2] Schwartz and Randal in their paper An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security [3] argue that an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially de-stabilize geo-political environments, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints.[4] Byers and Dragojlovic in a October 2004 article in the Human Security Bulletin state that “in the future, as climate change progresses .. conflicts over natural resources could increasingly take centre stage” and that the situation in Dafur “is likely linked to climate change”. Mesarovic and Pesrel[5] state that in a time of resource shortages “there will be a thousand desperadoes terrorizing those who are now ‘rich‘ and eventually nuclear blackmail and terror will paralyse further orderly development.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their Third Assessment Report (TAR) 2001 emphasize the linkages between global environmental issues and the challenge of meeting key human needs such as adequate food, clean water, clean air and adequate and affordable energy services.[6] The IPCC Fourth Annual Report, the first portion of which was released on February 2nd. 2007, has stated that it is 90% certain that mankind is responsible for rising global temperatures. Listed below are some of the effects that may forthcoming, according to the IPCC. At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones.
Given the possibilities for conflict created by the above changes in the global climate, whether it is over petroleum, uranium, refugee flows, fresh water or food, it rapidly becomes apparent that in South Asia, given its high population levels and the endemic poverty, that the possibilities for conflict are overwhelming. Glaciers in the Himalyas from which much of South Asia obtains its water supplies are retreating, the Gangotri Glacier is retreating at 23 metres per year[8]. The Khumbu Glacier on Mount Everest has retreated more than five kilometers from the time when Sir Edmund Hillary and Tensing Norgay first conquered the world's highest peak in 1953. The Himalyan glaciers supply the water to the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Thanlwin, Yangtze and Yellow rivers. Any disruption of the water supply in these rivers could have widespread consequences for the region. The predicted increase in extreme weather including higher temperatures, changing patterns of precipitation coupled with increasing domestic and agricultural use of water is a recipe for disaster. If to the scenario above one adds Peak Oil it becomes even more disturbing. The Peak Oil theory states “it is widely accepted that oil is a finite resource; there are basic laws which describe the depletion of any finite resource: [a] Production starts at zero; [b] Production then rises to a peak which can never be surpassed; [c] Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted. These simple rules were first described in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert, and apply to any relevant system, including the depletion of the world’s petroleum resources. The rate of production of a natural resource can be plotted on a graph against time. This gives a picture of the lifetime of that resource. It is important to note that the point of maximum production (known as the Hubbert Peak) tends to coincide with the midpoint of depletion of the resource under consideration. In the case of oil, this means that when we reach the Hubbert Peak, we will have used half of all the recoverable oil that ever existed on our planet”. [9] The overwhelming problems facing South Asia today, from climate change and rising populations to peak oil and the need for alternative sources of energy, and the potential for conflict triggered by resource shortages signals that the South Asian community cannot afford to let peace continue to elude it. Conclusion First and foremost it is necesssary for all states to drastically reduce their carbon output. This can be accomplished through carbon sequestration, adaptation of alternative sources of energy and energy conservation. In the agricultural sector modern forms of irrigation should be adopted in order to conserve water and provide a measure food security. In arid areas new techniques of dryland farming should be promoted.[10] Ensure steps are taken to combat soil erosion, degradation, and the decline in soil fertility. A national energy security plan is a vital planning tool for all states and should be undertaken as a matter of urgency. [1] http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/06/25/ap/world/main2976768.shtml [2] http://www.e3g.org/index.php/archive/archive-article/energy-climate-democracy-and-the-future-of-europe/ [3] http://fletcher.tufts.edu/maritime/documents/ArcticSecurity.pdf [4] An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security, Schwartz and Randal, October 2003 [5] Mesarovic, M & Pestel, E., Mankind at the turning Point: The Second Report of the Club of Rome, 1975: The Anchor Press Ltd. 210 [6] ibid [8] http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/03/0310_060310_glaciers_2.html [9]http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm [10] http://permaculture.org.au/index.php
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